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沈南鹏:我们都没料到一个现象——强者愈强、马太效应

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年06月19日 23:27:00
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e彩平台代理 平台直招龙虎代理客服QQ【3512280158】诚招代理龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯分分彩,5分,10分彩,最高返水100反9快,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台平台24h提供注册及登录。沈南鹏:我们都没料到一个现象——强者愈强、马太效应

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(  强)(者)(愈)(强)(和)(中)(国)(机)(会)(
  我)(们)(都)(没)(料)(到)(一)(个)(现)(象)(:强)(者)(愈)(强)(、马)(太)(效)(应)(。这)(一)(年)(当)(中)(,腾)(讯)(和)(阿)(里)(巴)(巴)(的)(股)(价)(都)(上)(涨)(了)(一)(倍)(以)(上)(。两)(家)(巨)(无)(霸)(公)(司)(,都)(是)(近)(5000亿)(美)(元)(的)(市)(值)(,营)(收)(还)(在)(以)(大)(约)(每)(年)(60%的)(速)(度)(增)(长)(。即)(便)(是)(一)(个)(中)(型)(企)(业)(,如)(果)(有)(50%-60%的)(营)(收)(增)(速)(,也)(是)(不)(错)(的)(表)(现)(。腾)(讯)(和)(阿)(里)(巴)(巴)(这)(么)(大)(体)(量)(,还)(以)(这)(么)(高)(的)(速)(度)(增)(长)(,出)(乎)(市)(场)(预)(料)(,如)(果)(知)(道)(这)(两)(家)(公)(司)(有)(这)(么)(出)(色)(的)(业)(绩)(表)(现)(,年)(初)(股)(价)(就)(会)(有)(反)(应)(了)(。
  与)(之)(相)(关)(的)(是)(,至)(少)(在)(消)(费)(互)(联)(网)(领)(域)(,中)(国)(互)(联)(网)(军)(团)(跟)(美)(国)(已)(经)(并)(驾)(齐)(驱)(。以)(前)(大)(家)(自)(信)(地)(说)(,中)(国)(互)(联)(网)(正)(在)(变)(得)(强)(大)(,而)(这)(一)(次)(从)(市)(值)(和)(规)(模)(的)(角)(度)(,“强)(大)(”成)(为)(了)(事)(实)(。
  之)(所)(以)(会)(这)(样)(,是)(因)(为)(互)(联)(网)(在)(中)(国)(的)(应)(用)(场)(景)(和)(适)(合)(度)(都)(非)(常)(好)(,举)(两)(个)(例)(子)(:
  一)(个)(是)(线)(上)(产)(品)(占)(用)(的)(用)(户)(时)(长)(。以)(内)(容)(娱)(乐)(行)(业)(为)(例)(,美)(国)(线)(下)(娱)(乐)(很)(丰)(富)(,中)(国)(线)(下)(娱)(乐)(还)(在)(发)(展)(过)(程)(当)(中)(,所)(以)(线)(上)(娱)(乐)(占)(据)(了)(用)(户)(大)(量)(的)(时)(间)(。今)(日)(头)(条)(得)(益)(于)(此)(,快)(手)(得)(益)(于)(此)(,腾)(讯)(微)(信)(和)(游)(戏)(也)(得)(益)(于)(此)(,它)(们)(分)(别)(是)(新)(闻)(、视)(频)(、社)(交)(、游)(戏)(这)(几)(个)(维)(度)(。用)(户)(每)(天)(在)(快)(手)(上)(的)(平)(均)(时)(长)(是)(50分)(钟)(,在)(今)(日)(头)(条)(上)(是)(70分)(钟)(,在)(微)(信)(上)(是)(90分)(钟)(。
  中)(国)(人)(花)(在)(手)(机)(上)(的)(时)(间)(超)(过)(美)(国)(。这)(不)(是)(一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(的)(特)(有)(现)(象)(,而)(是)(普)(遍)(现)(象)(,在)(中)(国)(的)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(甚)(至)(到)(农)(村)(都)(是)(这)(样)(。很)(多)(人)(在)(城)(市)(里)(打)(工)(回)(去)(以)(后)(,把)(互)(联)(网)(文)(化)(也)(带)(到)(了)(自)(己)(的)(家)(乡)(。而)(且)(,互)(联)(网)(的)(产)(品)(形)(态)(,让)(很)(多)(人)(在)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(,成)(为)(快)(手)(上)(的)(主)(播)(,成)(为)(给)(头)(条)(提)(供)(内)(容)(的)(自)(媒)(体)(,成)(就)(他)(们)(的)(就)(业)(选)(择)(。美)(国)(线)(下)(娱)(乐)(相)(当)(发)(达)(,用)(户)(花)(在)(线)(上)(的)(时)(间)(就)(相)(对)(少)(。
  第)(二)(,中)(国)(的)(城)(市)(和)(人)(口)(特)(征)(,必)(然)(会)(使)(得)(本)(地)(生)(活)(服)(务)(更)(繁)(荣)(。因)(为)(经)(济)(上)(的)(账)(算)(得)(过)(来)(,所)(以)(会)(有)(更)(多)(服)(务)(被)(更)(广)(泛)(地)(提)(供)(。在)(美)(国)(,线)(上)(企)(业)(提)(供)(这)(些)(服)(务)(的)(话)(,经)(济)(上)(就)(不)(合)(算)(,也)(很)(难)(长)(期)(以)(补)(贴)(来)(服)(务)(用)(户)(。
  美)(国)(200万)(人)(口)(以)(上)(的)(城)(市)(有)(4座)(:洛)(杉)(矶)(、纽)(约)(、芝)(加)(哥)(、休)(斯)(顿)(。中)(国)(则)(有)(超)(过)(40座)(城)(市)(的)(中)(心)(城)(区)(人)(口)(在)(200万)(以)(上)(,中)(国)(这)(些)(城)(市)(的)(每)(平)(方)(公)(里)(人)(口)(密)(度)(远)(超)(过)(美)(国)(。这)(让)(中)(国)(的)(本)(地)(服)(务)(可)(以)(成)(立)(——无)(论)(是)(外)(卖)(还)(是)(快)(递)(,包)(括)(共)(享)(经)(济)(里)(的)(很)(多)(产)(品)(,比)(如)(共)(享)(自)(行)(车)(等)(等)(。它)(让)(中)(国)(人)(的)(生)(活)(更)(加)(便)(利)(,也)(造)(就)(了)(很)(多)(跟)(互)(联)(网)(相)(关)(的)(就)(业)(机)(会)(。
  所)(以)(,我)(认)(为)(中)(国)(的)(新)(经)(济)(比)(美)(国)(有)(更)(大)(的)(成)(长)(空)(间)(。美)(国)(的)(消)(费)(互)(联)(网)(,在)(过)(去)(三)(年)(并)(没)(有)(出)(现)(特)(别)(新)(的)(产)(品)(和)(企)(业)(。在)(短)(时)(间)(里)(迅)(速)(成)(长)(为)(大)(公)(司)(的)(,仍)(然)(是)(Airbnb、Snapchat和)(Uber这)(些)(几)(年)(前)(的)(案)(例)(。
  如)(今)(,互)(联)(网)(的)(行)(业)(已)(经)(不)(仅)(仅)(局)(限)(于)(线)(上)(的)(互)(联)(网)(产)(品)(本)(身)(,它)(同)(时)(包)(括)(对)(“传)(统)(”产)(业)(的)(改)(造)(与)(升)(级)(。互)(联)(网)(在)(中)(国)(,已)(经)(不)(仅)(仅)(是)(BAT、京)(东)(、小)(米)(,TMD(滴)(滴)(、美)(团)(、今)(日)(头)(条)()这)(么)(一)(个)(群)(组)(。今)(天)(,任)(何)(一)(个)(行)(业)(都)(要)(跟)(信)(息)(科)(技)(紧)(密)(连)(接)(在)(一)(起)(。
  比)(如)(汽)(车)(行)(业)(。为)(什)(么)(今)(天)(大)(家)(这)(么)(看)(好)(?就)(是)(因)(为)(电)(动)(汽)(车)(和)(智)(能)(制)(造)(这)(两)(个)(因)(素)(。在)(电)(动)(汽)(车)(这)(个)(场)(景)(下)(,自)(动)(驾)(驶)(和)(智)(能)(互)(联)(的)(运)(用)(有)(更)(多)(的)(机)(会)(。智)(能)(手)(机)(在)(中)(国)(造)(就)(了)(华)(为)(、小)(米)(、OPPO、vivo四)(家)(在)(全)(世)(界)(有)(一)(定)(市)(场)(地)(位)(的)(公)(司)(。相)(比)(之)(下)(,一)(部)(手)(机)(平)(均)(价)(格)(是)(2000元)(人)(民)(币)(,而)(一)(部)(新)(车)(的)(平)(均)(价)(格)(至)(少)(能)(达)(到)(十)(几)(万)(人)(民)(币)(,所)(以)(智)(能)(汽)(车)(行)(业)(比)(智)(能)(手)(机)(行)(业)(大)(很)(多)(,将)(会)(是)(一)(个)(几)(十)(万)(亿)(的)(市)(场)(。如)(果)(考)(虑)(到)(我)(们)(对)(环)(境)(治)(理)(的)(需)(求)(,减)(少)(对)(石)(油)(依)(赖)(的)(需)(求)(,再)(加)(上)(政)(府)(的)(大)(力)(支)(持)(,那)(么)(中)(国)(做)(电)(动)(汽)(车)(产)(业)(本)(身)(就)(比)(美)(国)(更)(适)(合)(、更)(有)(机)(会)(。另)(外)(,中)(国)(人)(口)(密)(度)(大)(,如)(果)(在)(全)(国)(建)(一)(个)(充)(电)(桩)(体)(系)(,经)(济)(账)(容)(易)(算)(过)(来)(。
  很)(多)(优)(秀)(的)(汽)(车)(公)(司)(已)(经)(开)(始)(行)(动)(。包)(括)(传)(统)(的)(大)(国)(企)(,比)(如)(一)(汽)(、上)(汽)(等)(,民)(营)(车)(企)(如)(吉)(利)(和)(比)(亚)(迪)(,还)(有)(新)(一)(代)(正)(在)(兴)(起)(的)(造)(车)(公)(司)(,比)(如)(蔚)(来)(,威)(马)(、零)(跑)(、小)(鹏)(、车)(和)(家)(……这)(个)(名)(单)(已)(经)(很)(长)(,但)(这)(还)(仅)(仅)(是)(浮)(上)(水)(面)(的)(公)(司)(。
  汽)(车)(属)(于)(硬)(件)(市)(场)(。硬)(件)(有)(一)(个)(特)(征)(,它)(跟)(地)(域)(文)(化)(的)(关)(联)(度)(并)(不)(是)(那)(么)(紧)(密)(,所)(以)(,美)(国)(企)(业)(生)(产)(的)(iPhone可)(以)(在)(中)(国)(获)(取)(比)(较)(大)(的)(市)(场)(;硬)(件)(的)(另)(一)(个)(特)(征)(是)(很)(难)(赢)(家)(通)(吃)(,这)(跟)(互)(联)(网)(的)(特)(征)(不)(同)(,手)(机)(厂)(商)(很)(难)(像)(微)(信)(那)(样)(在)(某)(一)(个)(领)(域)(里)(占)(据)(非)(常)(大)(的)(市)(场)(份)(额)(,硬)(件)(市)(场)(份)(额)(更)(加)(均)(衡)(。所)(以)(,在)(中)(国)(市)(场)(上)(,几)(家)(手)(机)(厂)(商)(的)(竞)(争)(几)(乎)(不)(分)(伯)(仲)(。
  硬)(件)(市)(场)(的)(这)(两)(类)(特)(征)(,让)(国)(外)(汽)(车)(公)(司)(比)(如)(特)(斯)(拉)(有)(机)(会)(进)(入)(中)(国)(市)(场)(,但)(也)(让)(中)(国)(公)(司)(更)(容)(易)(打)(出)(去)(。比)(如)(智)(能)(手)(机)(,小)(米)(、华)(为)(在)(海)(外)(占)(有)(一)(定)(的)(市)(场)(份)(额)(,再)(比)(如)(大)(疆)(创)(新)(,在)(大)(疆)(无)(人)(机)(的)(销)(售)(中)(,海)(外)(市)(场)(的)(占)(比)(更)(高)(。
  差)(异)(创)(新)(和)(头)(部)(策)(略)(
  1997-1998年)(,中)(国)(的)(三)(大)(门)(户)(网)(站)(新)(浪)(、搜)(狐)(和)(网)(易)(创)(立)(。随)(后)(几)(年)(里)(,腾)(讯)(、搜)(房)(、汽)(车)(之)(家)(、携)(程)(、百)(度)(先)(后)(创)(立)(。在)(早)(期)(,很)(多)(垂)(直)(领)(域)(可)(以)(去)(开)(发)(,当)(时)(大)(家)(首)(先)(看)(到)(汽)(车)(、房)(产)(、旅)(游)(和)(搜)(索)(等)(等)(,每)(一)(个)(垂)(直)(领)(域)(背)(后)(都)(有)(一)(个)(潜)(力)(巨)(大)(的)(市)(场)(,虽)(然)(发)(展)(过)(程)(中)(都)(有)(诸)(多)(竞)(争)(。但)(多)(年)(后)(,百)(度)(发)(展)(成)(了)(一)(家)(800亿)(美)(元)(的)(公)(司)(,携)(程)(长)(成)(了)(一)(家)(200多)(亿)(美)(元)(的)(企)(业)(。
  互)(联)(网)(在)(中)(国)(发)(展)(了)(20年)(,它)(已)(经)(不)(是)(早)(晨)(5点)(钟)(的)(太)(阳)(,可)(能)(已)(经)(到)(了)(中)(午)(12点)(。这)(个)(阶)(段)(,很)(多)(行)(业)(机)(会)(必)(然)(已)(经)(被)(覆)(盖)(,没)(有)(理)(由)(抱)(怨)(,这)(行)(业)(没)(有)(留)(给)(后)(来)(的)(创)(业)(者)(机)(会)(。
  如)(果)(用)(一)(些)(差)(异)(化)(的)(产)(品)(切)(入)(,仍)(然)(可)(以)(寻)(找)(到)(相)(当)(的)(发)(展)(空)(间)(。“得)(到)(”就)(是)(非)(常)(好)(的)(例)(子)(,在)(线)(少)(儿)(英)(语)(教)(育)(领)(导)(品)(牌)(VIPKID也)(是)(一)(个)(很)(好)(的)(示)(范)(,类)(似)(的)(例)(子)(还)(有)(很)(多)(。
  最)(重)(要)(的)(是)(产)(品)(差)(异)(化)(。因)(为)(产)(品)(差)(异)(化)(的)(表)(象)(背)(后)(所)(体)(现)(的)(,是)(你)(是)(否)(具)(备)(更)(强)(的)(技)(术)(能)(力)(,能)(否)(有)(独)(特)(的)(商)(业)(模)(式)(,执)(行)(力)(是)(不)(是)(比)(对)(手)(更)(强)(。现)(在)(的)(互)(联)(网)(产)(品)(是)(不)(是)(应)(该)(做)(得)(更)(重)(?其)(实)(未)(必)(,“快)(手)(”就)(不)(重)(,归)(根)(结)(底)(,重)(要)(的)(还)(是)(差)(异)(化)(。任)(何)(行)(业)(都)(一)(样)(,钢)(铁)(行)(业)(可)(能)(前)(几)(十)(年)(到)(处)(都)(有)(巨)(大)(的)(机)(会)(,但)(到)(了)(后)(来)(,特)(制)(种)(类)(的)(产)(品)(才)(能)(脱)(颖)(而)(出)(。
  很)(多)(垂)(直)(领)(域)(确)(实)(在)(早)(期)(就)(出)(现)(了)(赢)(家)(通)(吃)(的)(状)(况)(,比)(如)(外)(卖)(、电)(商)(。但)(这)(并)(不)(代)(表)(新)(公)(司)(没)(有)(机)(会)(了)(,寻)(找)(新)(的)(、没)(有)(被)(满)(足)(的)(市)(场)(需)(求)(,永)(远)(有)(机)(会)(。而)(且)(,围)(绕)(着)(大)(的)(生)(态)(也)(可)(以)(做)(相)(关)(的)(服)(务)(。比)(如)(,互)(联)(网)(游)(戏)(可)(以)(延)(伸)(出)(来)(很)(多)(服)(务)(产)(品)(,腾)(讯)(不)(可)(能)(把)(所)(有)(的)(事)(都)(做)(了)(,其)(他)(公)(司)(也)(有)(机)(会)(分)(到)(一)(杯)(羹)(。就)(像)(当)(年)(汽)(车)(行)(业)(发)(展)(起)(来)(后)(,汽)(车)(配)(件)(产)(业)(也)(随)(之)(兴)(起)(。当)(你)(置)(身)(一)(个)(巨)(大)(的)(市)(场)(中)(时)(,你)(会)(发)(现)(,跟)(它)(相)(关)(的)(产)(品)(和)(服)(务)(也)(会)(兴)(起)(。
  虽)(然)(是)(强)(者)(愈)(强)(的)(格)(局)(,但)(我)(们)(红)(杉)(早)(期)(的)(投)(资)(标)(的)(并)(没)(有)(减)(少)(,因)(为)(整)(个)(行)(业)(空)(间)(也)(被)(拉)(大)(了)(。
  时)(间)(是)(最)(好)(的)(朋)(友)(。我)(们)(7年)(前)(投)(资)(美)(团)(,4年)(前)(投)(资)(滴)(滴)(,3年)(前)(投)(资)(头)(条)(,今)(天)(它)(们)(的)(估)(值)(——根)(据)(私)(募)(市)(场)(上)(的)(价)(格)(——一)(个)(是)(500多)(亿)(美)(元)(,另)(外)(两)(个)(300多)(亿)(美)(元)(。当)(我)(们)(在)(投)(的)(那)(一)(刻)(,是)(否)(能)(想)(到)(它)(们)(会)(长)(到)(这)(么)(大)(?你)(很)(难)(会)(想)(到)(。
  这)(本)(身)(就)(是)(一)(个)(演)(化)(和)(发)(展)(的)(过)(程)(。这)(也)(是)(投)(资)(新)(经)(济)(非)(常)(有)(意)(思)(的)(地)(方)(,未)(知)(孕)(育)(着)(惊)(喜)(,让)(你)(的)(投)(资)(生)(活)(变)(得)(非)(常)(有)(趣)(。
  当)(然)(,强)(者)(愈)(强)(的)(趋)(势)(也)(会)(给)(我)(们)(的)(投)(资)(策)(略)(带)(来)(一)(些)(变)(化)(。最)(重)(要)(的)(变)(化)(是)(,当)(捕)(捉)(到)(头)(部)(公)(司)(时)(,我)(们)(会)(不)(断)(地)(加)(码)(。头)(部)(公)(司)(,指)(的)(是)(在)(行)(业)(里)(处)(于)(显)(著)(领)(先)(位)(置)(的)(公)(司)(。
  所)(以)(,我)(们)(在)(前)(一)(轮)(领)(投)(今)(日)(头)(条)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,加)(码)(再)(次)(投)(资)(。在)(美)(团)(点)(评)(300亿)(美)(金)(估)(值)(时)(,我)(们)(作)(为)(最)(早)(的)(投)(资)(人)(、第)(二)(大)(机)(构)(股)(东)(继)(续)(加)(码)(投)(资)(,支)(持)(公)(司)(的)(发)(展)(;对)(于)(瓜)(子)(和)(VIPKID的)(投)(资)(也)(是)(如)(此)(,都)(是)(在)(已)(经)(有)(一)(定)(持)(股)(比)(例)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,在)(新)(一)(轮)(继)(续)(加)(仓)(。
  今)(天)(的)(头)(部)(公)(司)(的)(发)(展)(规)(划)(跟)(前)(几)(年)(的)(特)(点)(也)(不)(一)(样)(。以)(前)(,企)(业)(到)(了)(独)(角)(兽)(级)(别)(,也)(就)(是)(10亿)(美)(金)(的)(估)(值)(以)(后)(,就)(会)(开)(始)(寻)(求)(上)(市)(。现)(在)(,很)(多)(10倍)(于)(独)(角)(兽)(规)(模)(的)(企)(业)(都)(没)(上)(市)(计)(划)(。
  这)(些)(公)(司)(保)(持)(私)(有)(企)(业)(状)(态)(有)(其)(很)(好)(的)(原)(因)(。它)(们)(需)(要)(把)(企)(业)(战)(略)(和)(业)(务)(拓)(展)(充)(分)(释)(放)(以)(后)(,再)(去)(上)(市)(。上)(市)(早)(未)(必)(是)(好)(事)(,因)(为)(上)(市)(以)(后)(,企)(业)(不)(得)(不)(面)(对)(季)(度)(业)(绩)(压)(力)(,所)(有)(的)(信)(息)(都)(暴)(露)(在)(公)(众)(关)(注)(之)(下)(。而)(且)(,股)(票)(是)(流)(通)(的)(,任)(何)(投)(资)(者)(都)(可)(以)(买)(你)(的)(股)(票)(,同)(时)(也)(可)(以)(卖)(你)(的)(股)(票)(。当)(你)(宣)(布)(要)(在)(一)(个)(新)(的)(领)(域)(进)(行)(大)(规)(模)(投)(资)(时)(,大)(家)(就)(会)(猜)(测)(这)(意)(味)(着)(什)(么)(,你)(的)(股)(价)(有)(可)(能)(因)(此)(就)(会)(受)(到)(负)(面)(影)(响)(,而)(对)(冲)(基)(金)(往)(往)(是)(短)(视)(的)(。
  如)(果)(没)(上)(市)(,你)(可)(以)(安)(静)(地)(根)(据)(自)(己)(的)(长)(期)(规)(划)(来)(打)(造)(公)(司)(的)(发)(展)(战)(略)(。战)(略)(调)(整)(对)(互)(联)(网)(公)(司)(来)(说)(并)(不)(鲜)(见)(,比)(如)(当)(年)(美)(团)(进)(入)(外)(卖)(领)(域)(。
  公)(司)(以)(前)(往)(往)(急)(于)(上)(市)(。2012年)(,唯)(品)(会)(上)(市)(时)(的)(市)(值)(为)(9亿)(美)(元)(。我)(们)(当)(时)(建)(议)(再)(等)(一)(等)(,但)(公)(司)(确)(实)(有)(融)(资)(压)(力)(,当)(时)(在)(私)(募)(市)(场)(上)(,有)(深)(口)(袋)((指)(有)(能)(力)(不)(断)(去)(投)(资)(的)(机)(构)()而)(且)(有)(耐)(性)(的)(机)(构)(比)(较)(少)(,只)(有)(以)(上)(市)(的)(形)(式)(来)(融)(资)(。后)(来)(唯)(品)(会)(也)(证)(明)(了)(自)(己)(是)(一)(家)(优)(秀)(的)(企)(业)(,尽)(管)(最)(近)(一)(两)(年)(股)(价)(有)(调)(整)(,市)(值)(也)(仍)(然)(在)(50亿)(美)(元)(以)(上)(。
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